Yesterday, March 16, 2022, was the date of the first Fed rate hike in 3 years, and is the first of an expected 7 total for the year 2022.  This rate hike is an effort to fight off the inflation once deemed “transitory” but has proven to be a larger than initially anticipated problem.  There is a lot of confusion around the Fed’s rate decisions and movements, because their moves do have a direct impact on some loan products, with more indirect impacts in other areas.  One area that has an indirect impact is mortgage rates.

First, it’s important to understand what does have a direct impact on mortgage rates.  The sale of mortgage backed securities, or MBS (investment vehicles that include many loans bundled together), are what drive mortgage rates up and down.  When the price of MBS increases, mortgage rates associated with those securities go down.  When the price of MBS declines, interest rates go up (rates rise to attract more investment money).  The Federal Funds Rate, or the Fed rate, is simply the rate set by the Fed at which banks borrower from the Fed.  It is not a rate paid by consumers.

Some things impacted directly by the Fed funds rate are financial products tied to the ‘prime rate’ – since the prime rate correlates with the Fed funds rate, when the Fed makes rate decisions, it has a direct impact on products like Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) and credit cards, since both are tied to the prime rate.  Mortgage rates, however, being driven by MBS, are influenced by a variety of factors.  One of the biggest impacts to mortgage rates comes from inflation.  In an inflationary environment, we see interest rates increase (as we’ve seen since the start of 2022).  Since the Fed increases rates as a way to fight inflation, it frequently occurs that when the Fed raises their funds rate, mortgage rates actually go down as an immediate result.

With the Fed funds rate increasing, money becomes more expensive for banks, and the impact is often felt in market liquidity.  Due to a variety of reasons, a Fed rate hike is often a precursor to a recessionary environment, another financial environment that is usually tied to a reduction in mortgage rates.  So often, while the impact is not directly related, when the Fed raises the Fed funds rate, mortgage rates often trend downward.  You can see in this chart that after the Fed has increased the Fed funds rate historically, it’s generally been followed by a dip in 30 year fixed mortgage rates, and many times has also been a precursor for recession.

When the Fed raises the Fedral funds rate, we often see mortgage rates go down

There are many factors that influence mortgage rates, and while the Fed funds rate direction has an indirect impact, it is only a piece of the puzzle when it comes to the direction of rates short- and long-term.  While it’s a near certainty that rates on things like HELOCs and credit card rates will increase in 2022 along with the Fed funds rate, the direction of mortgage rates will be subject to many other factors, including recession numbers, the overall economic picture, geopolitical affairs, and other markets (such as the stock market) competing for investor dollars.

Curious about where rates currently sit and what options may exist for your mortgage?  Reach out to your MasonMac loan officer today for up to date information on current rates!

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The Fed rate cut is a small piece of the big economic picture, but it does NOT have an immediate impact on mortgage rates as many people believe

Well, the Fed funds rate is the rate banks borrow from each other.  When the rate is cut, it is done to help stimulate the economy and increase inflation.  The Fed funds rate is NOT directly tied to mortgage rates or most other fixed rate loan instruments.  What IS directly tied to the Fed funds rate is the prime rate (the rate credit card variations are based on), so you may see rates on credit cards and other similar debt move in correlation with the Fed funds rate, but mortgage rates don’t move based on what the Fed does.

In fact, the market has already absorbed the forecast for a rate cut into current conditions – mortgage bond traders (and traders in every other market) forecast cuts or increases to rates well in advance of the actual decision/announcement day by the Fed.  The only time the Fed announcement has a large impact is when their decision differs from what the markets expected (for example, if the market expects a .25 CUT and the Fed announces a .25 INCREASE, you can bet there’d be some immediate market craziness).   So rates today won’t move as the Fed delivered exactly what the market was expecting.

But what about the bigger picture?  Long term, Fed rate cuts are indicative of an economy that needs a boost.  In a recessionary environment, inflation is generally low, and this is a positive for the bond market.  Because of this, when the Fed cuts rates, it’s usually a signal that mortgage rates are in a downward trend, but the rates don’t move down because of the Fed rate cut.  And the impact is certainly not immediate.

So if you’re locked into a mortgage loan today, your rate hasn’t changed for the product or loan program you’re applying for.  In today’s market, your timing is quite good – rates are near their historic low, and while there may be an opportunity to obtain a lower rate down the line (the changes to rates based on economic conditions generally move over weeks and months, not days), today’s rates are amazingly low when looking at the history of mortgage debt.

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